Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased for the first time in two months and reached $222/t FOB (+$5/t compared to the previous week) with delivery in August, the analytical center of Rusagrotrans told Agroinvestor. The price of French wheat increased by $7/t, to $240/t, German wheat increased by $6/t, to $243/t, and American wheat fell by $3/t, to $211/t.
Wheat prices in Europe began to rise, including under the influence of the deterioration of crop conditions in France, as well as a significant decrease in wheat yields in Russia in a number of regions of the Central and Volga regions as the harvesting campaign progresses. In the Baltic countries, there has been an abnormal amount of precipitation in recent days, which, given the harvesting that has begun, will lead to a deterioration in the quality of wheat and barley. In the US, following the results of the crop tour, spring wheat showed a high yield potential, which led to a decrease in prices, but its condition is deteriorating against the backdrop of drought.
Prices for wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports compared to the previous week increased by 450 rubles, to 15.8-15.9 thousand rubles / t excluding VAT, at low water – by 500 rubles, to 15 thousand rubles / t. A year ago at this time, prices were 16.7 thousand rubles / t and 14.5 thousand rubles / t, respectively.
On the domestic market, prices for 4th class wheat in the South increased by 650 rubles, to 14 thousand rubles per ton without VAT (EXW elevator), in the Volga region they decreased by 550 rubles, to 12-12.8 thousand rubles per ton, in the Center – by 400 rubles, to 12.5 thousand rubles per ton. In Siberia, prices remained at the level of 11.8-12.7 thousand rubles per ton. Rusagrotrans analysts also revised the forecast for wheat exports in July, increasing it from 2.5 million tons to 3.3 million tons due to more active exports in the second half of the month. This is significantly less than in the first month of the 2023/24 season, when 4.17 million tons were shipped abroad, but above the five-year average (3.1 million tons). In August, deliveries may amount to 4-4.5 million tons against a record 5.4 million tons in this month a year earlier and 4.9 million tons on average over five years, analysts estimated.
The export duty on wheat from July 31 to August 6 will be 906.4 rubles per ton, 634 rubles less than the week before. The indicative price for calculating the rate was $220.5/ton ($229.6/ton the week before), the Ministry of Agriculture reported.